Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Travis Kelce has compiled many more air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.4.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Travis Kelce's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.6% to 79.5%.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to be a less important option in his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (24.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.8% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. TEs this year (62.7%).
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the least passing touchdowns in football to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

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