Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has put up many more air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 49.4.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.6% to 77.3%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.