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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 2

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense results when facing better conditions in this game.

THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (21.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.7% in games he has played).

Travis Kelce has compiled a whopping 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 5th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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