Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Travis Kelce has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.7% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has notched quite a few more air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (66.6%) versus TEs this year (66.6%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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