Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 29.7% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has accrued many more air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 6th-least passing TDs in the league to TEs: 0.18 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.