Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-142/+107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.2% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has put up far more air yards this year (71.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 55.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.4.
Travis Kelce's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.6% to 75.2%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) vs. TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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