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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-142/+107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.2% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among TEs.

Travis Kelce has put up far more air yards this year (71.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).

Travis Kelce's 55.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.4.

Travis Kelce's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.6% to 75.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) vs. TEs this year (63.0%).

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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