Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.3% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has posted many more air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 55.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 49.4.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) versus TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded the 5th-least passing TDs in the NFL to tight ends: 0.11 per game this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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