Travis Kelce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-165/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
Travis Kelce has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 24.6% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (77.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 56.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 49.4.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.5%) versus tight ends this year (64.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.11 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.