Travis Etienne Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Travis Etienne

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 22, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (63.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.2% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The New York Jets defensive tackles project as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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