Travis Etienne Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-169).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +127 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars have been the 7th-most run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 51.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (72.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.6% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has rushed for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.