Travis Etienne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to earn 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (76.7%) versus RBs since the start of last season (76.7%).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.36 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.80 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.