Travis Etienne Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Travis Etienne

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the worst unit in football this year with their run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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