Travis Etienne Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-135/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to earn 19.2 carries in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.6% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.7% run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The New York Jets defensive tackles project as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.