Trace McSorley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Trace McSorley

NFL · Player Props

Trace McSorley

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Trace McSorley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends project as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Trace McSorley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.

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