Tony Pollard Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to earn 16.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
After comprising 41.6% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Tony Pollard has been more involved in the run game this season, currently making up 62.7%.
Tony Pollard has picked up 66.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (88th percentile).

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run on 40.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
Tony Pollard has been less successful in picking up extra rushing yardage this year, totaling 2.55 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.82 mark last year.

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