Tony Pollard Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per play.
In this week's game, Tony Pollard is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.8 rush attempts.
After taking on 41.6% of his offense's carries last season, Tony Pollard has had a larger role in the run game this season, currently taking on 65.0%.
Tony Pollard's 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year signifies a a substantial growth in his rushing talent over last year's 58.0 figure.
Tony Pollard's ground efficiency (4.84 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Favors Under

The Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Tony Pollard's 2.64 yards-after-contact this season represents a a material reduction in his rushing prowess over last season's 3.82 rate.
Since the start of last season, the weak San Francisco 49ers run defense has allowed a monstrous 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-worst rate in the league.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's safety corps has been great this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.