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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -157.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Titans will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mason Rudolph this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

In this week's game, Tony Pollard is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.8 targets.

With an elite 12.7% Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.9% pass rate.

The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

As it relates to pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

Tony Pollard's 76.1% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 83.5% rate.

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