Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cowboys offensive gameplan to tilt 3.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This week, Tony Pollard is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.7 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Tony Pollard has been more prominently incorporated in his team's pass game.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

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