Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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