Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tony Pollard has run more routes this year (43.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (26.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accrue 3.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard has been among the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 2.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.5% to 79.8%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

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