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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -166.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Tony Pollard has run more routes this year (43.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (26.6%).

THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accrue 3.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

Tony Pollard has been among the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 2.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.8% pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.5% to 79.8%.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

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