Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Tony Pollard has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (43.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (26.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accrue 3.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 89.5% to 79.8%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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