Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Tony Pollard has been used more as a potential target this season (41.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (26.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accrue 3.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
Tony Pollard's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.0% to 74.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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