Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 13, 2024 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 127.8 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to total 3.6 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
As it relates to air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the towering 84th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an astounding 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
With an exceptional 22.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (79th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard stands as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the league.
Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 83.5% to 87.0%.

Favors Under

The Titans rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
Tony Pollard's 48.3% Route Participation Rate this year shows a material diminishment in his air attack volume over last year's 59.5% mark.
Tony Pollard checks in as one of the bottom RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 5.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.