Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 2, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Tony Pollard rates in the 97th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 20.9 mark this year.
The Commanders pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
When talking about pocket protection (and the importance it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Titans grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year.
Tony Pollard's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 83.5% to 76.0%.

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