Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cowboys offensive gameplan to tilt 3.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This week, Tony Pollard is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.7 targets.
When talking about air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a striking 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Tony Pollard's ability to generate extra yardage has declined this year, averaging a measly 6.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.74 figure last year.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 20.0) versus RBs this year.
This year, the formidable Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a feeble 4.6 yards.