Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
Tony Pollard has run more routes this season (57.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.3%).
The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
With a fantastic 21.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (88th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard stands as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Tony Pollard's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, compiling just 5.03 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.46 rate last season.
Tony Pollard's ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 4.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 9.74 figure last season.
This year, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing RBs: a mere 6.4 YAC.