Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 10.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Tony Pollard has put up a whopping 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tony Pollard has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among running backs, catching a mere 78.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 24th percentile.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in football (73.5%) versus running backs since the start of last season (73.5%).