Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
Tony Pollard's 59.8% Route Participation% this season marks a significant progression in his air attack utilization over last season's 44.3% figure.
The projections expect Tony Pollard to accrue 5.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

Tony Pollard's receiving efficiency has worsened this season, notching a mere 4.89 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.46 figure last season.
Tony Pollard's 6.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a substantial drop-off in his efficiency in space over last year's 9.7% figure.
The Bills linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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