Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 7.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.89 seconds per play, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in the league.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Tony Pollard's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, notching just 4.94 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.46 mark last season.
Tony Pollard's 6.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates an impressive drop-off in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 9.7% rate.
This year, the formidable Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a paltry 5.4 yards.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 4th-fewest in football.