Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offensive gameplan to lean 6.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
Tony Pollard has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (56.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (44.3%).
In this contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the projections to land in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets.

Favors Under

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are heavily favored in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
Tony Pollard's 5.4 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a significant decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 6.5 figure.
Tony Pollard's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this season, notching just 6.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 9.74 rate last season.