Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Tony Pollard has been used more as a potential target this year (56.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (44.3%).
In this week's game, Tony Pollard is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.9 targets.
When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the towering 79th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a monstrous 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Tony Pollard's 5.4 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 6.5 figure.