Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Tony Pollard's talent in generating extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 12.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 8.08 rate last season.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has given their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
Tony Pollard has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 43.5% of snaps compared to just 30.2% last season.
Tony Pollard has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (9.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).
Tony Pollard's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.0% to 67.4%.

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