Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+105/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 9.4% this year, which ranks in the 75th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
Tony Pollard has accumulated a paltry 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 88.9% to 63.5%.
Tony Pollard's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a measly 5.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.84 mark last year.

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