Tony Pollard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Tony Pollard has been used more as a potential target this season (41.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (26.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accrue 3.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
Tony Pollard has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (22.0).
Tony Pollard's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.0% to 74.8%.
Tony Pollard's receiving efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 5.75 yards-per-target vs a 7.82 rate last year.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has shown strong efficiency against running backs this year, allowing 5.24 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.

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