Tony Pollard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to garner 16.6 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (58.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.3% in games he has played).
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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