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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Carries
Player Prop Week 17

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

Tony Pollard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-134/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A running game script is implied by the Cowboys being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average).

In this contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the projections to finish in the 84th percentile among running backs with 15.4 carries.

Tony Pollard has been much more involved in his team's run game this season (60.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (41.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Detroit's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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