Tony Pollard Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
In this week's game, Tony Pollard is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 96th percentile among RBs with 17.9 rush attempts.
After comprising 41.6% of his offense's run game usage last season, Tony Pollard has been more involved in the run game this season, now making up 63.2%.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Seattle's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
At the present time, the 8th-least run-oriented team in the league (36.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dallas Cowboys.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Cowboys defense this year, averaging 28.19 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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