Tony Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tony Jones

NFL · Player Props

Tony Jones

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+239/-380).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +247 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +239.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Jones to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (49.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in football (1.08 per game) against the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Tony Jones has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the league among running backs (1st percentile).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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