Tommy Tremble Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tommy Tremble

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in football have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a massive 63.5 per game on average).
Tommy Tremble's 77.5% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 62.0% mark.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 51.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Tommy Tremble's 10.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 17.3.
The Carolina O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
This year, the daunting Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a meager 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-best rate in football.

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