Tommy Tremble Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tommy Tremble

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Tommy Tremble's 100.0% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a material progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 62.0% figure.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Tommy Tremble has been used much less in his team's pass attack.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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