Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tommy Tremble

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
Tommy Tremble's 100.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys an impressive improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 62.0% figure.

Favors Under

Tommy Tremble's 2.5% Target Rate this year conveys a meaningful regression in his pass game workload over last year's 7.6% rate.
Tommy Tremble has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (4.0 per game) than he did last season (16.0 per game).
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Tommy Tremble has been one of the weakest TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.48 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 21st percentile.

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