Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (86.7%) vs. tight ends this year (86.7%).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 10.32 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Tommy Tremble has been among the bottom pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a measly 12.0 yards per game while grading out in the 23rd percentile among tight ends.
Tommy Tremble has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching just 62.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile.