Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Tommy Tremble has accounted for a colossal 9.2% of his team's air yards this year: 78th percentile among tight ends.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (52.0) vs. TEs this year.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Tommy Tremble has been among the worst tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a mere 11.0 yards per game while checking in at the 19th percentile among tight ends.