Tommy DeVito TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tommy DeVito

NFL · Player Props

Tommy DeVito

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tommy DeVito TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.6 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
This year, the feeble Patriots defense has surrendered a monstrous 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-worst rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New England's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (51.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Giants.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
This year, the formidable New England Patriots defense has surrendered a measly 1.20 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league.

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