Tommy DeVito Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tommy DeVito

NFL · Player Props

Tommy DeVito

QB · New York Giants

Completions

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tommy DeVito Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.6 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
This year, the feeble Patriots defense has surrendered a monstrous 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-worst rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New England's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

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