Tom Kennedy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tom Kennedy

NFL · Player Props

Tom Kennedy

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Kennedy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-939).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +433 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +422.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Kennedy to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (11.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.5% in games he has played).
Tom Kennedy has put up many more air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (7.0 per game).
Tom Kennedy's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 6.3.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.6%) versus WRs this year (70.6%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Tom Kennedy has not caught any TDs this year.
The Chicago Bears defense has given up the 8th-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.

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