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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-195/+146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -195.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.3% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.7 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 10th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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