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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-250/+175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a mere 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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