Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-250/+190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (67.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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