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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+168/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +168.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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