Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+168/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.